To assess the implications of increase in traffic on congestion within the town it is necessary to consider the situation after the completion of all development on the ASRs. Traffic forecasts prepared by the Transport Planning and Policy group at Hertfordshire County Council are used to make our assessment.
The HCC forecasts were prepared on the basis of the Bishop’s Stortford North Development Brief. With the abandonment of the Development Brief the total number of dwellings reduces to 2728 - compensation has been made for this and other changes to the housing proposals.
We examine the traffic flows as given for 1998 and 2021 at three locations - Rye Street, Hadham Road and the Causeway Link Road.
| Rye St. | Hadham Rd. | Causeway | ||
| 1998 | 1392 | 1009 | 1437 | |
| 2021 | No ASR development | 1432 | 1513 | 1832 |
| 2021 | ASRs fully developed | 2083 | 1713 | 2164 |
| Rye St. | Hadham Rd. | Causeway | ||
| 1998 | 1253 | 983 | 1580 | |
| 2021 | No ASR development | 1644 | 1140 | 2036 |
| 2021 | ASRs fully developed | 2240 | 1595 | 2319 |
With traffic on Rye Street increasing by approx. 60% during the AM peak, with ASRs 3, 4 and 5 developed, the dangers for children crossing the road on their way to school gives rise to considerable concern. The forecast evening peak increase, of about 78%, will, we consider, result in a tailback into Northgate End and possible the Causeway Link Road and Hadham Road and affect the whole town centre.
For Hadham Road, the low growth to 2021 with no development of ASRs 1 and 2, a 50% increase on 1998, will cause problems for traffic emerging from Northgate End / Rye Street in the AM peak. Development of the ASRs will only worsen this situation, probably to a point of causing gridlock in Northgate End. Once again there will be problems for schoolchildren at the crossing by Maple Avenue.
Given
the present congestion of the Causeway Link road (pictured
right) at the evening peak, the forecast increase of 47% will
certainly be beyond the capacity of the existing highway system.
The low growth forecasts of increases in traffic flows at the town centre with no ASR development (approx. 27%) will seriously aggravate the present congested highway infrastructure. Development of any part of the ASRs will lead to extreme levels of congestion, and possible gridlock. For sustainability reasons, development of the ASRs should be abandoned and the land reclassified as Green Belt.
